论文标题
使用非洲的卫星降雨估算对操作数值天气预测模型的验证预测
Verification of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts of Precipitation Using Satellite Rainfall Estimates over Africa
论文作者
论文摘要
由于其对农业，粮食安全，与气候相关的疾病和公共卫生的影响，降雨是能够监测和预测非洲的重要变量。由于其完整的空间覆盖范围，高分辨率和预测未来的能力，数值天气模型（NWM）是这项工作的重要组成部分。在这项研究中，我们试图评估非洲降雨的短期降雨预测的时空技能。具体而言，欧洲中等天气预报中心（ECMWF）和国家环境预测 - 全球预测系统（NCEP-GFS）预测模型通过降雨量估算2.0（RFE2）和非洲降雨量2（ARC2）（ARC2）（ARC2）（ARC2）验证，这些模型是融合了卫星和在SITUSUS INSITU PLUAN和SATELTORITY和SITUREFARTIONS和ASSITU PLAIN的融合产物。我们发现，模型降雨预测与非洲在季节性时间表上的空间分布中的卫星降雨观测表现出良好的一致性。评估指标显示非洲大陆上的空间和季节性变化很高，包括与热带融合区（ITCZ）的位置和地形增强的降水的牢固联系。针对每日预测，一周聚集时间的降雨预测得到了改善。
Rainfall is an important variable to be able to monitor and forecast across Africa, due to its impact on agriculture, food security, climate related diseases and public health. Numerical Weather Models (NWM) are an important component of this work, due to their complete spatial coverage, high resolution, and ability to forecast into the future. In this study, we seek to evaluate the spatiotemporal skill of short-term rainfall forecasts of rainfall across Africa. Specifically, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) forecast models are verified by Rainfall Estimates 2.0 (RFE2) and African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2), which are fused products of satellite and in-situ observations and are commonly used in analysis of African rainfall. We found that the model rainfall forecasts show good consistency with the satellite rainfall observations in spatial distribution over Africa on the seasonal timescale. Evaluation metrics show high spatial and seasonal variations over the African continent, including a strong link to the location of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and topographically enhanced precipitation. The rainfall forecasts at one week aggregation time are improved against daily forecasts.
