论文标题

时间序列预测的全球模型:仿真研究

Global Models for Time Series Forecasting: A Simulation Study

论文作者

Hewamalage, Hansika, Bergmeir, Christoph, Bandara, Kasun

论文摘要

在当前大数据的情况下,许多预测问题的性质已经从预测孤立的时间序列到预测来自类似来源的许多时间序列的变化。这为开发竞争激烈的全球预测模型提供了机会,这些模型同时从许多时间序列中学习。但是,目前尚不清楚全局预测模型何时胜过单变量基准,尤其是沿着串联的同质性/异质性的维度,系列中模式的复杂性,预测模型的复杂性以及长度/序列数量。我们的研究试图通过模拟许多具有可控时间序列特征的数据集来研究这些因素的影响来解决这个问题。具体而言,我们模拟了从简单数据生成过程(DGP)(例如自动回归(AR)和季节性AR)到复杂的DGP的时间序列,例如混乱的Logistic Map,自我激发的阈值自动回归和Mackey-Glass方程。数据异质性是通过将从几个DGP生成的时间序列混合到一个数据集中引入的。在不同的情况下,数据集中的长度和串联数量有所不同。我们使用包括复发性神经网络(RNN),前馈神经网络,合并回归(PR)模型(PR)模型和光梯度增强模型(LGBM)在内的全局预测模型在这些数据集上进行实验,并将其性能与标准统计统计统计单变量预测技术进行比较。我们的实验表明,当受过全球预测模型训练时,具有复杂的非线性建模功能的RNN和LGBM等技术是竞争性的方法,通常是竞争性的方法,在挑战性的预测场景中,例如具有短长度,具有短长度的数据集,具有异构性系列的数据集,具有多种元素序列的数据和最小的先验知识。

In the current context of Big Data, the nature of many forecasting problems has changed from predicting isolated time series to predicting many time series from similar sources. This has opened up the opportunity to develop competitive global forecasting models that simultaneously learn from many time series. But, it still remains unclear when global forecasting models can outperform the univariate benchmarks, especially along the dimensions of the homogeneity/heterogeneity of series, the complexity of patterns in the series, the complexity of forecasting models, and the lengths/number of series. Our study attempts to address this problem through investigating the effect from these factors, by simulating a number of datasets that have controllable time series characteristics. Specifically, we simulate time series from simple data generating processes (DGP), such as Auto Regressive (AR) and Seasonal AR, to complex DGPs, such as Chaotic Logistic Map, Self-Exciting Threshold Auto-Regressive, and Mackey-Glass Equations. The data heterogeneity is introduced by mixing time series generated from several DGPs into a single dataset. The lengths and the number of series in the dataset are varied in different scenarios. We perform experiments on these datasets using global forecasting models including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Feed-Forward Neural Networks, Pooled Regression (PR) models and Light Gradient Boosting Models (LGBM), and compare their performance against standard statistical univariate forecasting techniques. Our experiments demonstrate that when trained as global forecasting models, techniques such as RNNs and LGBMs, which have complex non-linear modelling capabilities, are competitive methods in general under challenging forecasting scenarios such as series having short lengths, datasets with heterogeneous series and having minimal prior knowledge of the patterns of the series.

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