论文标题
停止流行控制的经济学
The economics of stop-and-go epidemic control
论文作者
论文摘要
我们分析了“停止和行动”的遏制政策，这些政策随着感染率下降的期限紧缩封锁周期。随后的遏制措施放松措施允许案件再次增加，直到施加另一个锁定并重复周期。在199年大流行期间，几个欧洲国家遵循的政策似乎符合这种模式。我们表明，“停留”应该导致医疗费用降低，而不是将感染保持在“停留和行动”产生的高点和低点之间的中点。增加上部政策的上限并减少相同数量的下限将降低平均医疗负荷。但是，增加上限并降低下限的同时保持几何平均值会产生相反的效果。我们还表明，由于经济成本与遏制成正比，任何将感染回到原始水平（技术上封闭周期）的道路都具有相同的总体经济成本。
We analyse 'stop-and-go' containment policies that produce infection cycles as periods of tight lockdowns are followed by periods of falling infection rates. The subsequent relaxation of containment measures allows cases to increase again until another lockdown is imposed and the cycle repeats. The policies followed by several European countries during the Covid-19 pandemic seem to fit this pattern. We show that 'stop-and-go' should lead to lower medical costs than keeping infections at the midpoint between the highs and lows produced by 'stop-and-go'. Increasing the upper and reducing the lower limits of a stop-and-go policy by the same amount would lower the average medical load. But increasing the upper and lowering the lower limit while keeping the geometric average constant would have the opposite effect. We also show that with economic costs proportional to containment, any path that brings infections back to the original level (technically a closed cycle) has the same overall economic cost.
