论文标题

改善IA型超新星光度演化的贝叶斯后相关分析

Improving Bayesian posterior correlation analysis on Type Ia supernova luminosity evolution

论文作者

Zhang, Keto D., Murakami, Yukei S., Stahl, Benjamin E., Patra, Kishore C., Filippenko, Alexei V.

论文摘要

迄今为止,从IA型超新星(SNE IA)中提取的许多宇宙学效用都取决于以下假设:SN〜IA峰亮度并未随着其恒星环境的年龄(局部或全局)的显着发展。最近的两项研究为评估该假设的有效性提供了相互矛盾的结果,其中一项发现哈勃残差(HR)和恒星环境年龄之间没有相关性,而另一个则声称是显着的相关性。在这封信中,我们进行了一项独立的重新分析,该分析通过上述两项研究采用的统计方法纠正了问题。我们的分析遵循一种原则性的方法,该方法适当说明了回归稀释液,并批判性地说明了(与两项先前的研究不同)使用了贝叶斯模型生产的SN环境年龄估计值(后样品)而不是点估计。此外,后验被用作回归中的信息。我们发现人力资源与本地(全球)年龄之间的Pearson相关性超过$4σ$($3σ$)。假设HR与本地(全球)年龄之间存在线性关系,我们发现相应的斜率为$ -0.035 \ pm 0.007 \,\ Mathrm {mag \ \,gyr}^{ - 1} $($ -0.0.036 \ pm pm 0.007 \ pm 0.007 \,,\,\ mathrm {magrm {mag \,gyr,我们鼓励进一步使用我们的方法,以检查人力资源和年龄相关的可能宇宙学含义。

Much of the cosmological utility thus far extracted from Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) relies on the assumption that SN~Ia peak luminosities do not evolve significantly with the age (local or global) of their stellar environments. Two recent studies have provided conflicting results in evaluating the validity of this assumption, with one finding no correlation between Hubble residuals (HR) and stellar environment age, while the other claims a significant correlation. In this Letter we perform an independent reanalysis that rectifies issues with the statistical methods employed by both of the aforementioned studies. Our analysis follows a principled approach that properly accounts for regression dilution and critically (and unlike both prior studies) utilises the Bayesian-model-produced SN environment age estimates (posterior samples) instead of point estimates. Moreover, the posterior is used as an informative prior in the regression. We find the Pearson correlation between the HR and local (global) age to be in excess of $4σ$ ($3σ$). Assuming there exists a linear relationship between HR and local (global) age, we find a corresponding slope of $-0.035 \pm 0.007\,\mathrm{mag\,Gyr}^{-1}$ ($-0.036 \pm 0.007\,\mathrm{mag\,Gyr}^{-1}$). We encourage further usage of our approach to examine possible cosmological implications of the HR and age correlation.

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