论文标题

推断干预措施对COVID-19传输网络的影响

Inferring the effect of interventions on COVID-19 transmission networks

论文作者

Syga, Simon, David-Rus, Diana, Schälte, Yannik, Meyer-Hermann, Michael, Hatzikirou, Haralampos, Deutsch, Andreas

论文摘要

世界各地的国家实施非药物干预措施(NPI)来减轻COVID-19的传播。有效NPI的设计需要鉴定疾病传播网络的结构。在这里,我们在将严格的NPI在德国第一波中,在德国的第一波浪潮中,将COVID-19传输网络的关键参数与基于代理的流行病学模型相结合,将严格的NPI在德国的第一波浪潮中使用。我们假设一个瓦特斯·斯特罗盖茨(Watts-Strogatz)的小世界网络,该网络允许区分聚类集团内的接触,并在人群中进行无聚集的随机接触,这已证明这对于维持流行病至关重要。与其他作品相比,使用匿名数据(例如手机数据)中使用粗粒网络结构的其他作品,我们明确考虑了单个代理的联系。我们表明,NPI大幅度降低了传输网络中的随机接触,增加了网络聚类,并导致从指数变为新售的恒定状态。在这种制度中,该疾病像波浪一样传播有限波速,这取决于以非线性方式的接触次数,我们可以通过平均场理论预测。我们的分析表明,除了新病例数量的指数级增加和指数减少之间的众所周知的过渡外,NPI还可以诱导向另一个恒定新病例的另一个以前未经批准的状态过渡。

Countries around the world implement nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Design of efficient NPIs requires identification of the structure of the disease transmission network. We here identify the key parameters of the COVID-19 transmission network for time periods before, during, and after the application of strict NPIs for the first wave of COVID-19 infections in Germany combining Bayesian parameter inference with an agent-based epidemiological model. We assume a Watts-Strogatz small-world network which allows to distinguish contacts within clustered cliques and unclustered, random contacts in the population, which have been shown to be crucial in sustaining the epidemic. In contrast to other works, which use coarse-grained network structures from anonymized data, like cell phone data, we consider the contacts of individual agents explicitly. We show that NPIs drastically reduced random contacts in the transmission network, increased network clustering, and resulted in a change from an exponential to a constant regime of newcases. In this regime, the disease spreads like a wave with a finite wave speed that depends on the number of contacts in a nonlinear fashion, which we can predict by mean field theory. Our analysis indicates that besides the well-known transitionbetween exponential increase and exponential decrease in the number of new cases, NPIs can induce a transition to another, previously unappreciated regime of constant new cases.

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