论文标题
在Covid-19在智利的异质扩散
On the heterogeneous spread of COVID-19 in Chile
论文作者
论文摘要
非药物干预措施（NPI）在控制Covid-19的传播中起着至关重要的作用。然而，NPI疗效在国家之间和内部之间有很大变化，主要是由于人口和行为异质性。在这项工作中，我们改编了一个多组SEIRA模型，以研究智利Covid-19的扩散动态，代表了不同群体的地理区域区域。我们使用民族动员统计数据来估计政府存储库中地区与数据之间的连通性，以获取每个地区的Covid-19-19。然后，我们通过研究繁殖数RT的时间演变来评估不同NPI的有效性。分析了基于数据驱动的RT估计值，我们发现了不同区域的牢固耦合，强调了有组织和协调的动作的必要性，以控制SARS-COV-2的传播。最后，我们评估了不同的方案，以预测人口稠密地区Covid-19的演变，发现早期限制的提升可能会导致新的爆发。
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, NPI efficacy varies enormously between and within countries, mainly because of population and behavioural heterogeneity. In this work, we adapted a multi-group SEIRA model to study the spreading dynamics of COVID-19 in Chile, representing geographically separated regions of the country by different groups. We use national mobilization statistics to estimate the connectivity between regions and data from governmental repositories to obtain COVID-19 spreading and death rates in each region. We then assessed the effectiveness of different NPIs by studying the temporal evolution of the reproduction number Rt. Analyzing data-driven and model-based estimates of Rt, we found a strong coupling of different regions, highlighting the necessity of organized and coordinated actions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we evaluated different scenarios to forecast the evolution of COVID-19 in the most densely populated regions, finding that the early lifting of restriction probably will lead to novel outbreaks.
