论文标题
中国中部和西部的热发电和经济增长：一种异质的混合面板Granger-CAUSALITY方法
The thermal power generation and economic growth in the central and western China: A heterogeneous mixed panel Granger-Causality approach
论文作者
论文摘要
新能源经济的问题已成为一个全球热门问题。这项研究研究了中国西部和中部的热力发电（RTPG）中热力的比率（GDP）之间的因果关系，它使用了异质的混合面板Granger因果关系方法，这些方法既是斜率异质性和横截面依赖性。对于整个小组，经验发现支持从GDP到RTPG（在中国西北）以及从RTPG到GDP（中央）的单向因果关系的存在。在省级，Neimongol和Ningxia的因果关系从GDP到RTPG，以及Shanxi，Anhui和Jiangxi的RTPG到GDP的因果关系。至于交叉区域的关系，我们发现GDP（西部）Granger原因RTPG（中央）和RTPG（在西南）Granger原因GDP（中央和西北）。此外，面板回归显示了西北GDP对RTPG的负面影响，将RTPG和中部的GDP产生了负面影响。但是，RTPG对西北的GDP有积极影响。因此，为了改善经济发展而不损害中国中部和西部地区的竞争力，我们可以调整发电结构，并增加对可再生能源供应和能源效率的投资。
The problem of the new energy economy has become a global hot issue. This study examines the causal relationship between the ratio of thermal power in total power generation (RTPG) and economic growth (GDP) in the western and central China by using the heterogeneous mixed panel Granger causality approach that accounts for both slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. For the overall panel, the empirical findings support the presence of unidirectional causality running from GDP to RTPG (in northwest China), and from RTPG to GDP (in central). At the provincial level, there is causality from GDP to RTPG in NeiMongol and Ningxia, and causality from RTPG to GDP in Shanxi, Anhui, and Jiangxi. As for the cross regions relationships, we find that GDP (in western) Granger-cause RTPG (in central), and RTPG (in southwest) Granger-cause GDP (in central and northwest). Moreover, panel regressions show the negative impact from GDP to RTPG in the northwest, and RTPG to GDP in the central. However, RTPG has a positive influence on GDP in the northwest. Therefore, to improve economic development without compromising the regions' competitiveness in central and western China, we can adjust the power generation structure, and increase investments in the renewable energy supply and energy efficiency.
