论文标题
控制Covid-19的因素中的基本效应分析计算模拟中的感染揭示了社会距离的重要性和掩盖用法的重要性
Elementary Effects Analysis of factors controlling COVID-19 infections in computational simulation reveals the importance of Social Distancing and Mask Usage
论文作者
论文摘要
世界卫生组织（WHO）于2020年3月11日宣布Covid-19被宣布为大流行。由于这种大流行，全球一半的国家陷入锁定，监测和了解病毒和感染率的传播以及这些因素与行为和社会参数的关系对于有效的政策制定至关重要。本文旨在研究面具，社会距离，锁定和自我隔离的有效性，以减少SARS-COV-2感染的传播。我们基于基于代理的仿真建模的发现表明，尽管需要锁定的方式被普遍认为是快速减少感染数量的最有效方法，但社交距离的实践和手术口罩的使用可能比需要锁定更有效。我们使用莫里斯基本效应方法对模拟结果进行的多变量分析表明，如果足够比例的人群戴着手术面具并遵循了社会疏远法规，则可以控制SARS-COV-2感染而无需锁定。
COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11th, 2020. With half of the world's countries in lockdown as of April due to this pandemic, monitoring and understanding the spread of the virus and infection rates and how these factors relate to behavioural and societal parameters is crucial for effective policy making. This paper aims to investigate the effectiveness of masks, social distancing, lockdown and self-isolation for reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Our findings based on agent-based simulation modelling show that whilst requiring a lockdown is widely believed to be the most efficient method to quickly reduce infection numbers, the practice of social distancing and the usage of surgical masks can potentially be more effective than requiring a lockdown. Our multivariate analysis of simulation results using the Morris Elementary Effects Method suggests that if a sufficient proportion of the population wore surgical masks and followed social distancing regulations, then SARS-CoV-2 infections can be controlled without requiring a lockdown.
