论文标题
像专业人士一样玩？将飞镖的游戏作为动态的零和游戏解决
Play Like the Pros? Solving the Game of Darts as a Dynamic Zero-Sum Game
论文作者
论文摘要
在过去的十年中，飞镖游戏的增长巨大，随着飞镖从酒吧游戏转变为经常在包括英国，德国，德国，荷兰和澳大利亚等许多国家 /地区的黄金时段电视上的游戏。飞镖游戏涉及两个玩家之间的战略互动，但迄今为止，文献忽略了这些互动。在本文中，我们将飞镖的游戏制定为动态零和游戏（ZSG），据我们所知，我们是第一个这样做的人。我们还使用基于飞镖比赛的新型数据集来估算单个技能模型，这些数据集是2019赛季全球前16名专业球员所扮演的。使用合适的技能模型和我们的ZSG问题表达式，我们在计算最佳策略时量化了战略性发挥的重要性，即考虑对手的得分和策略。对于顶级专业人士，我们发现在战略上发挥作用会导致单腿的获胜性增加仅为0.2％-0.6％，但比35杆最佳腿比赛高达2.3％。
The game of darts has enjoyed great growth over the past decade with the perception of darts moving from that of a pub game to a game that is regularly scheduled on prime-time television in many countries including the U.K., Germany, the Netherlands, and Australia among others. The game of darts involves strategic interactions between two players but to date the literature has ignored these interactions. In this paper, we formulate and solve the game of darts as a dynamic zero-sum-game (ZSG), and to the best of our knowledge we are the first to do so. We also estimate individual skill models using a novel data-set based on darts matches that were played by the top 16 professional players in the world during the 2019 season. Using the fitted skill models and our ZSG problem formulation, we quantify the importance of playing strategically, i.e. taking into account the score and strategy of one's opponent, when computing an optimal strategy. For top professionals we find that playing strategically results in an increase in win-probability of just 0.2% - 0.6% over a single leg but as much as 2.3% over a best-of-35 legs match.
