论文标题
动态交易策略的无模型分析
Model-free Analysis of Dynamic Trading Strategies
论文作者
论文摘要
我们引入了一种无模型方法,用于分析一系列动态交易策略的风险和回报,包括对交易信号的偏移,包括对交易,均值逆转交易和其他统计套利策略。我们的结果是在没有任何概率假设的路径环境中得出的。 我们介绍了δ-伸缩的概念,该概念定义为在返回该水平之前从参考水平偏离参考水平的路径。我们表明,每个连续路径在δ-外虫中都有独特的分解。这种分解对于动态交易策略的场景分析很有用,从而为交易数量,实现的利润,最大损失和缩减提供了简单的表达方式。我们表明,可以根据信号的(第pth阶)本地时间来描述均值逆转策略的高频极限。特别是,我们的结果对不规则路径的当地时间产生了财务解释。最后,我们描述了一种非参数场景仿真方法,用于生成其偏移属性与经验数据中观察到的路径相匹配的路径。
We introduce a model-free approach for analyzing the risk and return for a broad class of dynamic trading strategies, including pairs trading, mean-reversion trading and other statistical arbitrage strategies, in terms of excursions of a trading signal away from a reference level. Our results are derived in a pathwise setting, without any probabilistic assumptions. We introduce the notion of δ-excursion, defined as a path which deviates by δ from a reference level before returning to this level. We show that every continuous path has a unique decomposition into δ-excursions. This decomposition is useful for the scenario analysis of dynamic trading strategies, leading to simple expressions for the number of trades, realized profit, maximum loss, and drawdown. We show that the high-frequency limit of mean-reversion strategies may be described in terms of the (p-th order) local time of the signal. In particular, our results yield a financial interpretation of the local time of an irregular path. Finally, we describe a non-parametric scenario simulation method for generating paths whose excursion properties match those observed in empirical data.