论文标题
比特币的未来碳足迹
Bitcoin's future carbon footprint
论文作者
论文摘要
比特币的碳足迹引起了广泛的关注，但比特币对气候的长期影响仍然不确定。在这里，我们提出了一个框架，以克服以前的估计中的不确定性以及项目比特币的电力消耗和碳足迹。如果我们假设比特币的市值与黄金的市值增长，那么我们发现比特币的每年电力消耗可能从2020年至2100年之间的60 TWH增加到400个。比特币的未来碳足迹很大程度上取决于电力部门的脱碳途径。如果到2050年电力部门达到碳中立性，则比特币的碳足迹已经达到顶峰。然而，在业务局部情况下，排放总计2千万座，直到2100年，与2019年全球排放的7％相当。然而，2020年底的比特币价格飙升表明，市场资本化的逐步发展可以产生2021年的电力消耗量已经超过2021年，并导致了2021年的累加量，因此，累积的累加量超过了5 gigsons，我们将5 gigsons降低了5 gigsons，我们将累积的货物降低了5 gigsons，我们可以将5 gigssons降低。比特币的未来碳足迹。
The carbon footprint of Bitcoin has drawn wide attention, but Bitcoin's long-term impact on the climate remains uncertain. Here we present a framework to overcome uncertainties in previous estimates and project Bitcoin's electricity consumption and carbon footprint in the long term. If we assume Bitcoin's market capitalization grows in line with the one of gold, we find that the annual electricity consumption of Bitcoin may increase from 60 to 400 TWh between 2020 and 2100. The future carbon footprint of Bitcoin strongly depends on the decarbonization pathway of the electricity sector. If the electricity sector achieves carbon neutrality by 2050, Bitcoin's carbon footprint has peaked already. However, in the business-as-usual scenario, emissions sum up to 2 gigatons until 2100, an amount comparable to 7% of global emissions in 2019. The Bitcoin price spike at the end of 2020 shows, however, that progressive development of market capitalization could yield an electricity consumption of more than 100 TWh already in 2021, and lead to cumulative emissions of over 5 gigatons by 2100. Therefore, we also discuss policy instruments to reduce Bitcoin's future carbon footprint.
