论文标题
关于传染病暴发期间的主要流行病学指标
On Key Epidemiological Metrics during Infectious Disease Outbreaks
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项工作中，我们回顾了用来表征流行病爆发最多的数字。特别注意以随着时间变化的过渡速率的流行病扩散。时间变化的SIR样模型用于描述流行动力学，从中，封闭方程与繁殖率和倍增时间（如繁殖比率和倍增时间）相关。这些指标的定义和计算是在随时间变化模型动力学的一般解决方案的背景下重新审视的，重点是与时间不变的情况的相似性和差异。此外，还研究了这些指标的预测，即疾病进化，因为还研究了对不同情况的反应。
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic dynamics, from which closed equations relating parameters and key quantities like reproduction ratio and doubling time are derived. The definition and computation of these metrics are revisited in the context of the general solution to the time-varying model dynamics, focusing on the similarities and differences with the time-invariant case. Further, the prediction of these metrics, that is of the disease evolution, as response to different scenarios is also investigated.
