论文标题
多组SEIR框架中最佳大流行屏蔽的见解
Insights from Optimal Pandemic Shielding in a Multi-Group SEIR Framework
论文作者
论文摘要
COVID-19大流行构成了近几十年来全球健康和经济福利的最大威胁之一。在本文中，我们分析了旨在抵抗病毒传播并最大程度减少经济损失的不同类型的政策措施。我们的分析基于多组SEIR模型，该模型扩展了Acemoglu等人〜（2020）引入的多组SIR模型。我们调整基本的社会互动模式，并考虑一组扩展的政策措施。该模型已针对德国进行校准。尽管COVID-19预防与屏蔽政策所固有的经济活动之间的权衡取舍，但我们的结果表明，可以通过将这些政策定位到不同年龄段的人群来实现效率提高。可以采用诸如身体距离之类的替代政策来降低靶向程度以及屏蔽的强度和持续时间。我们的结果表明，一种结合多种政策措施的全面方法可以有效地减轻人口死亡率和经济伤害。
The COVID-19 pandemic constitutes one of the largest threats in recent decades to the health and economic welfare of populations globally. In this paper, we analyze different types of policy measures designed to fight the spread of the virus and minimize economic losses. Our analysis builds on a multi-group SEIR model, which extends the multi-group SIR model introduced by Acemoglu et al.~(2020). We adjust the underlying social interaction patterns and consider an extended set of policy measures. The model is calibrated for Germany. Despite the trade-off between COVID-19 prevention and economic activity that is inherent to shielding policies, our results show that efficiency gains can be achieved by targeting such policies towards different age groups. Alternative policies such as physical distancing can be employed to reduce the degree of targeting and the intensity and duration of shielding. Our results show that a comprehensive approach that combines multiple policy measures simultaneously can effectively mitigate population mortality and economic harm.
