论文标题

使用二进制分类模型来预测菲律宾大学本科课程入学的可能性

Using a Binary Classification Model to Predict the Likelihood of Enrolment to the Undergraduate Program of a Philippine University

论文作者

Esquivel, Dr. Joseph A., Esquivel, James A.

论文摘要

随着K到12计划的最新实施,学术机构,尤其是菲律宾的大学,在确定预计的新生参与者的决策因素方面面临着有效资源管理的预期新生参与者的困难。入学目标直接影响高等教育机构的成功因素。这项研究介绍了对影响菲律宾大学入学状况的新生申请人的各种特征的分析。使用逻辑回归制定了一个预测模型,以评估录取的学生将寻求入学的可能性。使用的数据集是从大学招生办公室获得的。该办公室设计了一份在线申请表,以获取申请人的详细信息。在线表格分发给所有学生申请人,最常见的是学生,倾向于提供不完整的信息。尽管这一事实,但基于学生位置的学生特征以及地理和人口统计数据是入学决定的重要预测指标。该研究的结果表明,鉴于有关潜在学生的信息有限,高等教育机构可以实施机器学习技术来补充管理决策并提供班级规模的估计,以这种方式,它将使该机构能够优化资源的分配,并可以更好地控制净学费收入。

With the recent implementation of the K to 12 Program, academic institutions, specifically, Colleges and Universities in the Philippines have been faced with difficulties in determining projected freshmen enrollees vis-a-vis decision-making factors for efficient resource management. Enrollment targets directly impacts success factors of Higher Education Institutions. This study covered an analysis of various characteristics of freshmen applicants affecting their admission status in a Philippine university. A predictive model was developed using Logistic Regression to evaluate the probability that an admitted student will pursue to enroll in the Institution or not. The dataset used was acquired from the University Admissions Office. The office designed an online application form to capture applicants' details. The online form was distributed to all student applicants, and most often, students, tend to provide incomplete information. Despite this fact, student characteristics, as well as geographic and demographic data based on the students' location are significant predictors of enrollment decision. The results of the study show that given limited information about prospective students, Higher Education Institutions can implement machine learning techniques to supplement management decisions and provide estimates of class sizes, in this way, it will allow the institution to optimize the allocation of resources and will have better control over net tuition revenue.

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