论文标题
对美国县SARS-COV-2流行的强大估计
Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties
论文作者
论文摘要
在美国县，Covid-19-19爆发是异步的。减轻COVID-19的传播不仅需要州和联邦一级的保护措施，例如社会疏远和测试，而且还需要公众对县和社区层面时期的风险和反应的认识。我们提出了一种强大的方法来估计所有具有不少于2个COVID的相关死亡的美国县SARS-COV-2的异质进展，并且我们使用易感性个人的每日合同概率（POC）SARS-COV-2来量化社区中SARS-COV-2传播的风险。我们发现，在SARS-COV-2的感染期内缩短$ 5 \％$可以减少$ 39 \％$ $（或$ 78 $ K，$ 95 \％$ ci：$ [66 $ k $，89 $ k $ $ k $] $）的COVID-9的COVID-9中的相关死亡以及9月2020年的相关均为2020年的死亡。有效的繁殖数接近1，这表明应将测试与其他缓解措施一起使用，例如社交距离和戴面膜，以降低传输速率。我们的可交付方式包括一个充满活力的县级地图，供地方官员确定最佳政策回应，并让公众更好地了解每天签约SARS-COV-2的风险。
The COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by $5\%$ of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around $39\%$ (or $78$K, $95\%$ CI: $[66$K $, 89$K $]$) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.
