论文标题
通过基于年龄的扩散模型来预测科学出版物的普及
Predicting the popularity of scientific publications by an age-based diffusion model
论文作者
论文摘要
预测科学出版物的普及吸引了各个学科的许多关注。在本文中，我们专注于科学论文的受欢迎程度预测问题，并提出了一个基于年龄的扩散（AD）模型，以确定哪些论文在不久的将来会收到更多的引用，并且会很受欢迎。 AD模型是沿引文网络的注意扩散过程的模仿。实验研究表明，与其他基于网络的方法相比，AD模型可以实现更好的预测准确性。对于一些没有积累很多引用但会在不久的将来流行的新发表的论文，广告模型可以大大提高其排名。这确实至关重要，因为从每个月发表的大量新论文中确定未来的高度引用的论文将为研究人员提供非常有价值的参考。
Predicting the popularity of scientific publications has attracted many attentions from various disciplines. In this paper, we focus on the popularity prediction problem of scientific papers, and propose an age-based diffusion (AD) model to identify which paper will receive more citations in the near future and will be popular. The AD model is a mimic of the attention diffusion process along the citation networks. The experimental study shows that the AD model can achieve better prediction accuracy than other networkbased methods. For some newly published papers that have not accumulated many citations but will be popular in the near future, the AD model can substantially improve their rankings. This is really critical, because identifying the future highly cited papers from massive numbers of new papers published each month would provide very valuable references for researchers.
