论文标题
不确定性意识到野火管理
Uncertainty Aware Wildfire Management
论文作者
论文摘要
美国最近的野火导致生命损失和数十亿美元,破坏了无数的建筑和森林。战斗野火非常复杂。由于烟雾和与地面监视有关的风险,很难观察到真正的火灾状态。在庞大的区域内要部署的资源有限,大火的传播是具有挑战性的。本文提出了一种对抗野火的决策理论方法。我们将资源分配问题建模为部分观察的马尔可夫决策过程。我们还提出了一个数据驱动的模型,该模型使我们能够模拟火灾如何随相关协变量的函数而传播。使用数据驱动模型来打击野火的一个主要问题是缺乏将火灾与相关协变量相关的全面数据源。我们提出了一种基于大规模栅格和向量分析的算法方法,可用于创建此类数据集。我们拥有超过200万个数据点的数据是第一个将现有的消防数据库与从卫星图像中提取的协变量相结合的开源数据集。通过使用现实世界野火数据的实验,我们证明了我们的预测模型可以准确地模拟野火的传播。最后,我们使用模拟证明与基线方法相比,我们的响应策略可以显着减少响应时间。
Recent wildfires in the United States have resulted in loss of life and billions of dollars, destroying countless structures and forests. Fighting wildfires is extremely complex. It is difficult to observe the true state of fires due to smoke and risk associated with ground surveillance. There are limited resources to be deployed over a massive area and the spread of the fire is challenging to predict. This paper proposes a decision-theoretic approach to combat wildfires. We model the resource allocation problem as a partially-observable Markov decision process. We also present a data-driven model that lets us simulate how fires spread as a function of relevant covariates. A major problem in using data-driven models to combat wildfires is the lack of comprehensive data sources that relate fires with relevant covariates. We present an algorithmic approach based on large-scale raster and vector analysis that can be used to create such a dataset. Our data with over 2 million data points is the first open-source dataset that combines existing fire databases with covariates extracted from satellite imagery. Through experiments using real-world wildfire data, we demonstrate that our forecasting model can accurately model the spread of wildfires. Finally, we use simulations to demonstrate that our response strategy can significantly reduce response times compared to baseline methods.