论文标题
在配置模型中接触跟踪
Contact tracing in configuration models
论文作者
论文摘要
隔离和接触跟踪是缓解流行病暴发的流行临时做法。但是，目前很少有数学理论可以评估网络在这些实践的有效性中的作用。在本文中，我们研究了流行病的最终大小如何受到接触跟踪和隔离网络无效模型的程序的影响：配置模型。 也就是说，我们认为感染的顶点可能会自我汇聚并以给定的成功概率追踪其感染者。 反过来，追溯的感染者不太可能感染他人。我们表明，这种追踪过程的有效性在很大程度上取决于网络结构。与以前的发现相反 在具有异质程度的网络上，程序不一定更有效。我们还表明，网络聚类以非平凡的方式影响追踪过程的有效性：取决于感染性参数，群集网络上的接触跟踪可能比没有聚类的网络上的效率更高，要么效率更低。
Quarantining and contact tracing are popular ad hoc practices for mitigating epidemic outbreaks. However, few mathematical theories are currently available to asses the role of a network in the effectiveness of these practices. In this paper, we study how the final size of an epidemic is influenced by the procedure that combines contact tracing and quarantining on a network null model: the configuration model. Namely, we suppose that infected vertices may self-quarantine and trace their infector with a given success probability. A traced infector is, in turn, less likely to infect others. We show that the effectiveness of such tracing process strongly depends on the network structure. In contrast to previous findings, the tracing procedure is not necessarily more effective on networks with heterogeneous degrees. We also show that network clustering influences the effectiveness of the tracing process in a non-trivial way: depending on the infectiousness parameter, contact tracing on clustered networks may either be more, or less efficient than on network without clustering.
