论文标题
COVID-19-19
Covid-19 vaccination strategies with limited resources -- a model based on social network graphs
论文作者
论文摘要
我们开发了一种感染模型，该模型考虑了一个脆弱群体的存在以及个人社会关系的变异。我们开发了一个分隔的幂律模型，考虑到这些连接以及脆弱的人之间的连接，以及脆弱的人之间的连接，以及我们在测试中变化的参数。我们使用该模型研究了两个假设下的许多疫苗接种策略：首先，我们假设疫苗的可用性有限，但无限的疫苗接种能力，因此所有可用剂量可以在短时间内进行（相对于流行病的演变而言可忽略不计）。然后，我们假设疫苗接种能力有限，因此剂量是在不可忽略的时间内对流行病的进化而施用的。我们针对各种社会参数制定了最佳策略，其中策略包括（1）对弱势群体管理的疫苗的比例，以及（2）用于将其管理给普通人群的标准。在有限的疫苗接种能力的情况下，分数（1）是时间的函数，我们研究如何优化它以获得受害者人数的最大减少。
We develop a model of infection spread that takes into account the existence of a vulnerable group as well as the variability of the social relations of individuals. We develop a compartmentalized power-law model, with power-law connections between the vulnerable and the general population, considering these connections as well as the connections among the vulnerable as parameters that we vary in our tests. We use the model to study a number of vaccination strategies under two hypotheses: first, we assume a limited availability of vaccine but an infinite vaccination capacity, so that all the available doses can be administered in a short time (negligible with respect to the evolution of the epidemic). Then we assume a limited vaccination capacity, so that the doses are administered in a time non-negligible with respect to the evolution of the epidemic. We develop optimal strategies for the various social parameters, where a strategy consists of (1) the fraction of vaccine that is administered to the vulnerable population and (2) the criterion that is used to administer it to the general population. In the case of a limited vaccination capacity, the fraction (1) is a function of time, and we study how to optimize it to obtain a maximal reduction in the number of victims.
