论文标题
评估实时概率预测，并应用于国家篮球协会的结果预测
Evaluating real-time probabilistic forecasts with application to National Basketball Association outcome prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
在评估全国篮球协会中主队赢得概率的实时预测的目标中，我们开发了新的工具来衡量不断更新的概率预测的质量。这包括引入校准表面图以及它们的简单图形摘要，以了解给定连续更新的概率预测方法是否经过验证，以及开发统计测试和图形工具，以评估两种竞争不断更新的预测方法，以评估统计测试和图形工具。通过对模拟篮球游戏进行的蒙特卡洛模拟研究对这些工具进行了研究，并在应用程序中证明了这些工具，以评估由美国的跨国跨国体育网络ESPN在其原理网页{\ tt eSPN.com}上发表的不断更新的预测。该应用程序提供了统计证据，表明其已发布的预测已得到充分校准，并且在几个幼稚的模型中表现出了提高的技能，但仅基于对每个团队的相对强度的测量以及整个游戏中不断发展的得分差异，与简单的逻辑回归模型相比，没有显示出显着提高的技能。
Motivated by the goal of evaluating real-time forecasts of home team win probabilities in the National Basketball Association, we develop new tools for measuring the quality of continuously updated probabilistic forecasts. This includes introducing calibration surface plots, and simple graphical summaries of them, to evaluate at a glance whether a given continuously updated probability forecasting method is well-calibrated, as well as developing statistical tests and graphical tools to evaluate the skill, or relative performance, of two competing continuously updated forecasting methods. These tools are studied by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study of simulated basketball games, and demonstrated in an application to evaluate the continuously updated forecasts published by the United States-based multinational sports network ESPN on its principle webpage {\tt espn.com}. This application lends statistical evidence that the forecasts published there are well-calibrated, and exhibit improved skill over several naïve models, but do not demonstrate significantly improved skill over simple logistic regression models based solely on a measurement of each teams' relative strength, and the evolving score difference throughout the game.
