论文标题

一个深度学习框架,用于共卷爆发预测

A Deep Learning Framework for COVID Outbreak Prediction

论文作者

Neeraj, Mathew, Jimson, Behera, Ranjan Kumar, Panthakkalakath, Zenin Easa

论文摘要

Covid-19的爆发,即自2019年12月底以来,全世界的冠状病毒变化(也称为新型的Corona病毒引起呼吸系统疾病)是一个很大的关注点。截至2020年9月12日,它已变成了一次流行病爆发,并在全球范围内有超过2900万例确认的病例,大约有100万例死亡。它迫切需要监视和预测COVID-19-19的传播行为,以更好地控制这种传播。在所有流行的COVID-19预测模型中,统计模型在媒体中引起了很多关注。但是,统计模型在长期预测中的准确性较低,因为存在高度的不确定性,并且所需的数据也不够可用。在本文中,我们提出了深度学习模型的比较分析,以预测Covid-19爆发是统计模型的替代方法。我们提出了一个新的基于注意力的编码器模型,称为“注意长期记忆”(注意力LSTM)。基于LSTM的神经网络层体系结构结合了细粒度注意机制的思想,即关注隐藏状态维度,而不是隐藏状态向量本身,该维度矢量本身能够突出每个隐藏状态维度的重要性和贡献。它有助于检测至关重要的时间信息,从而产生高度可解释的网络。此外,我们在时间上实现了可学习的向量嵌入。因为,可以使用许多架构轻松添加向量表示中的时间。该向量表示称为Time2Vec。我们已经使用Johns Hopkins University系统科学与工程中心(CSSE)的COVID-19数据存储库来评估拟议模型的性能。与其他现有方法相比,提出的模型具有较高的预测精度。

The outbreak of COVID-19 i.e. a variation of coronavirus, also known as novel corona virus causing respiratory disease is a big concern worldwide since the end of December 2019. As of September 12, 2020, it has turned into an epidemic outbreak with more than 29 million confirmed cases and around 1 million reported deaths worldwide. It has created an urgent need to monitor and forecast COVID-19 spread behavior to better control this spread. Among all the popular models for COVID-19 forecasting, statistical models are receiving much attention in media. However, statistical models are showing less accuracy for long term forecasting, as there is high level of uncertainty and required data is also not sufficiently available. In this paper, we propose a comparative analysis of deep learning models to forecast the COVID-19 outbreak as an alternative to statistical models. We propose a new Attention-based encoder-decoder model, named Attention-Long Short Term Memory (AttentionLSTM). LSTM based neural network layer architecture incorporates the idea of fine-grained attention mechanism i.e., attention on hidden state dimensions instead of hidden state vector itself, which is capable of highlighting the importance and contribution of each hidden state dimension. It helps in detection on crucial temporal information, resulting in a highly interpretable network. Additionally, we implement a learnable vector embedding for time. As, time in a vector representation can be easily added with many architectures. This vector representation is called Time2Vec. We have used COVID-19 data repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University to assess the proposed model's performance. The proposed model give superior forecasting accuracy compared to other existing methods.

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