论文标题
使用贝叶斯网络特征将项目管理的成熟度和项目过度的风险联系起来
Use of Bayesian Network characteristics to link project management maturity and risk of project overcost
论文作者
论文摘要
项目管理领域必须提高项目成功率。专家已经开发了几种项目管理成熟度模型来资产和改善项目结果。但是，目前的文献缺乏模型，允许将测得的成熟度和成功的预期概率相关联。本文使用贝叶斯网络的特征来正式化专家的知识，并从项目过时数据库中提取知识。它开发了一种方法来估计项目管理成熟度对项目过度的风险的影响。提出了一个一般框架。一种工业案例用于说明该方法的应用。
The project management field has the imperative to increase the project probability of success. Experts have developed several project management maturity models to assets and improve the project outcome. However, the current literature lacks of models allowing correlating the measured maturity and the expected probability of success. This paper uses the characteristics of Bayesian networks to formalize experts' knowledge and to extract knowledge from a project overcost database. It develops a method to estimate the impact of project management maturity on the risk of project overcost. A general framework is presented. An industrial case is used to illustrate the application of the method.
