论文标题
是否热拍拍？探索大满贯网球比赛中的势头
Hot Racquet or Not? An Exploration of Momentum in Grand Slam Tennis Matches
论文作者
论文摘要
体育中的动力在上面事件的结果会影响以下事件，这是粉丝经常持有的信念，并且一直是许多体育统计研究的主题。本文调查了2014年至2019年男女的大满贯网球比赛中动量的存在和表现，以查看是否有证据表明从上一点点/游戏的结果到当前观点（S）/game/set（S）到当前无法通过球员质量，健身或疲劳来解释的效果。通用的线性混合效应模型（GLMM）用于探索以前的集合，游戏或点结果对赢得场景，游戏或点的几率的影响，同时结合了控制变量的控制变量，以说明玩家质量的差异和比赛的当前状态。我们发现在场景，游戏和点级别上造成结转效果的有力证据。在先前的服务游戏中持有发球与赢得当前游戏密切相关，但是输掉过去的游戏与赢得下一场比赛的估计几率有关。连续两三分赢得冠军与赢得下一个点的最高估计几率有关。
The presence of momentum in sports, where the outcome of a previous event affects a following event, is a belief often held by fans, and has been the subject of statistical study for many sports. This paper investigates the presence and manifestation of momentum in Grand Slam tennis matches from 2014 through 2019 for men and women, to see if there is evidence of any carryover effect from the outcome of previous point(s)/game(s)/set(s) to the current one that cannot be accounted for by player quality, fitness or fatigue. Generalized linear mixed effect models (GLMMs) are used to explore the effects of the outcomes of previous sets, games, or points on the odds of winning a set, game, or point, while incorporating control variables that account for differences in player quality and the current status of the match. We find strong evidence of carryover effects at the set, game, and point level. Holding one's serve in prior service games is strongly related to winning a current game, but losing a past game is associated with higher estimated odds of winning the next game. Winning the previous two or three points in a row is associated with highest estimated odds of winning the next point.
