论文标题

最佳检查和维护计划,通过动态贝叶斯网络和马尔可夫决策过程恶化结构组件

Optimal Inspection and Maintenance Planning for Deteriorating Structural Components through Dynamic Bayesian Networks and Markov Decision Processes

论文作者

Morato, P. G., Papakonstantinou, K. G., Andriotis, C. P., Nielsen, J. S., Rigo, P.

论文摘要

从桥梁到离岸平台和风力涡轮机等,民用和海上工程系统必须有效地管理,因为它们在整个运营生活中都暴露于劣化机制,例如疲劳或腐蚀。确定最佳检查和维护政策需要解决不确定性下复杂的顺序决策问题的解决方案,其主要目的是有效控制与结构性失败相关的风险。通过动态贝叶斯网络经常支持的这种复杂性,基于风险的检查计划方法,评估了一组预定的启发式决策规则,以合理地简化决策问题。但是,决定规则的定义中考虑的有限空间可能会损害所得的政策。避免这种限制,部分可观察到的马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP)为在不确定的动作结果和观察结果下为随机最佳控制提供了一种原则的数学方法,其中将最佳动作作为整个,动态更新的状态概率分布的函数处方。在本文中,我们将动态贝叶斯网络与POMDP结合在一个最佳检查和维护计划的关节框架中,并提供了在结构可靠性环境中开发无限和有限的地平线POMDP的配方。对疲劳恶化的结构组件的情况进行了实施和测试,并证明了基于最先进的点POMDP求解器在解决基础计划优化问题方面的能力。在数值实验中,对POMDP和基于启发式的策略进行了彻底比较,并且结果表明,与传统问题设置相比,POMDP的成本大大降低了成本。

Civil and maritime engineering systems, among others, from bridges to offshore platforms and wind turbines, must be efficiently managed as they are exposed to deterioration mechanisms throughout their operational life, such as fatigue or corrosion. Identifying optimal inspection and maintenance policies demands the solution of a complex sequential decision-making problem under uncertainty, with the main objective of efficiently controlling the risk associated with structural failures. Addressing this complexity, risk-based inspection planning methodologies, supported often by dynamic Bayesian networks, evaluate a set of pre-defined heuristic decision rules to reasonably simplify the decision problem. However, the resulting policies may be compromised by the limited space considered in the definition of the decision rules. Avoiding this limitation, Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a principled mathematical methodology for stochastic optimal control under uncertain action outcomes and observations, in which the optimal actions are prescribed as a function of the entire, dynamically updated, state probability distribution. In this paper, we combine dynamic Bayesian networks with POMDPs in a joint framework for optimal inspection and maintenance planning, and we provide the formulation for developing both infinite and finite horizon POMDPs in a structural reliability context. The proposed methodology is implemented and tested for the case of a structural component subject to fatigue deterioration, demonstrating the capability of state-of-the-art point-based POMDP solvers for solving the underlying planning optimization problem. Within the numerical experiments, POMDP and heuristic-based policies are thoroughly compared, and results showcase that POMDPs achieve substantially lower costs as compared to their counterparts, even for traditional problem settings.

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