论文标题
糖尿病患者的预测基于LSTM的重复神经网络,用于更安全的葡萄糖预测
Prediction-Coherent LSTM-based Recurrent Neural Network for Safer Glucose Predictions in Diabetic People
论文作者
论文摘要
在时间序列预测的背景下,我们提出了基于LSTM的复发性神经网络结构和损耗函数,从而增强了预测的稳定性。特别是,损失函数不仅在预测误差(于点误差)上对模型进行了惩罚,还限制了预测的变化误差。 我们将这个想法应用于糖尿病中未来葡萄糖价值的预测,这是一项微妙的任务,因为不稳定的预测会使患者有疑问,并使他/她采取错误的行动,威胁他/她的生命。该研究是对1型和2型糖尿病患者进行的,重点是提前30分钟的预测。 首先,我们通过将LSTM模型与其他最先进的模型(极限学习机,高斯过程回归,支持向量回归器进行比较)来确认LSTM模型的优势。 然后,我们通过平滑模型做出的预测来表明进行稳定预测的重要性,从而使模型的临床可接受性总体提高以成本的成本略有预测准确性损失。 最后,我们表明所提出的方法优于所有基线结果。更确切地说,它在预测准确性中的损失为4.3 \%,以提高临床可接受性为27.1 \%。与移动平均的后处理方法相比,我们表明,我们的方法更有效地折衷。
In the context of time-series forecasting, we propose a LSTM-based recurrent neural network architecture and loss function that enhance the stability of the predictions. In particular, the loss function penalizes the model, not only on the prediction error (mean-squared error), but also on the predicted variation error. We apply this idea to the prediction of future glucose values in diabetes, which is a delicate task as unstable predictions can leave the patient in doubt and make him/her take the wrong action, threatening his/her life. The study is conducted on type 1 and type 2 diabetic people, with a focus on predictions made 30-minutes ahead of time. First, we confirm the superiority, in the context of glucose prediction, of the LSTM model by comparing it to other state-of-the-art models (Extreme Learning Machine, Gaussian Process regressor, Support Vector Regressor). Then, we show the importance of making stable predictions by smoothing the predictions made by the models, resulting in an overall improvement of the clinical acceptability of the models at the cost in a slight loss in prediction accuracy. Finally, we show that the proposed approach, outperforms all baseline results. More precisely, it trades a loss of 4.3\% in the prediction accuracy for an improvement of the clinical acceptability of 27.1\%. When compared to the moving average post-processing method, we show that the trade-off is more efficient with our approach.