论文标题
基于杂交人工神经网络的堆叠模型的随机保留
Stochastic reserving with a stacked model based on a hybridized Artificial Neural Network
论文作者
论文摘要
当前,法律要求要求保险公司增加对监视与承保和资产管理活动相关的风险的重视。关于承保风险,保险公司必须管理的主要不确定性与保费足以涵盖未来的索赔和当前储备金的适当性,以支付未偿还索赔。由于其性质,使用随机模型对两种风险进行校准。本文介绍了基于一组机器学习技术的保留模型,例如梯度提升,随机森林和人工神经网络。这些算法和其他广泛使用的保留模型被堆叠以预测径流的形状。为了计算围绕以前的预测的偏差,将对数正态方法与建议的模型结合使用。经验结果表明,所提出的方法可用于改善基于贝叶斯统计和链条阶梯的传统保留技术的性能,从而更准确地评估了保留风险。
Currently, legal requirements demand that insurance companies increase their emphasis on monitoring the risks linked to the underwriting and asset management activities. Regarding underwriting risks, the main uncertainties that insurers must manage are related to the premium sufficiency to cover future claims and the adequacy of the current reserves to pay outstanding claims. Both risks are calibrated using stochastic models due to their nature. This paper introduces a reserving model based on a set of machine learning techniques such as Gradient Boosting, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Networks. These algorithms and other widely used reserving models are stacked to predict the shape of the runoff. To compute the deviation around a former prediction, a log-normal approach is combined with the suggested model. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed methodology can be used to improve the performance of the traditional reserving techniques based on Bayesian statistics and a Chain Ladder, leading to a more accurate assessment of the reserving risk.