论文标题
具有进化游戏动态的自愿隔离策略的流行病学模型
An epidemiological model with voluntary quarantine strategies governed by evolutionary game dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
在大流行事件中,诸如社会疏远之类的策略对于遏制病毒传播至关重要。这种行动可以减少同时感染的数量并减轻疾病扩散,这与医疗保健系统崩溃的风险有关。尽管可以提出这些策略,但它们的实际实施可能取决于人口对疾病风险的看法。例如,当前的Covid-19危机表明,有些人比其他人更容易孤立,避免了不必要的接触。通过这种动机,我们提出了一个流行病学的SIR模型,该模型使用进化游戏理论考虑了动态的个人隔离策略,打算在单一过程中结合社会策略,个人风险感知和病毒蔓延。该疾病在人群中传播,其代理人可以在自我隔离和对任何流行风险的生活方式之间进行选择。采用策略是个体,并且取决于隔离成本所感知的疾病风险。游戏的回报控制着采用战略,而流行过程则控制着代理人的健康状况。同时,感染率取决于药物的策略,而感知的疾病风险取决于感染剂的比例。结果表明,复发性感染波,在隔离的先前流行病情景中可以看到。值得注意的是,发现风险感知对于控制感染峰的大小至关重要,而最终感染的大小主要取决于感染率。低认识会导致单一和强烈的感染峰,而较高的疾病风险会导致峰值较短,尽管峰值更频繁。提议的模型自发地捕获了大流行事件的相关方面,突出了社会策略的基本作用。
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a healthcare system collapse. Although these strategies can be suggested, their actual implementation may depend on the population perception of the disease risk. The current COVID-19 crisis, for instance, is showing that some individuals are much more prone than others to remain isolated, avoiding unnecessary contacts. With this motivation, we propose an epidemiological SIR model that uses evolutionary game theory to take into account dynamic individual quarantine strategies, intending to combine in a single process social strategies, individual risk perception, and viral spreading. The disease spreads in a population whose agents can choose between self-isolation and a lifestyle careless of any epidemic risk. The strategy adoption is individual and depends on the perceived disease risk compared to the quarantine cost. The game payoff governs the strategy adoption, while the epidemic process governs the agent's health state. At the same time, the infection rate depends on the agent's strategy while the perceived disease risk depends on the fraction of infected agents. Results show recurrent infection waves, which were seen in previous epidemic scenarios with quarantine. Notably, the risk perception is found to be fundamental for controlling the magnitude of the infection peak, while the final infection size is mainly dictated by the infection rates. Low awareness leads to a single and strong infection peak, while a greater disease risk leads to shorter, although more frequent, peaks. The proposed model spontaneously captures relevant aspects of a pandemic event, highlighting the fundamental role of social strategies.