论文标题

耦合机学习和作物建模可改善美国玉米腰带的作物产量预测

Coupling Machine Learning and Crop Modeling Improves Crop Yield Prediction in the US Corn Belt

论文作者

Shahhosseini, Mohsen, Hu, Guiping, Archontoulis, Sotirios V., Huber, Isaiah

论文摘要

这项研究研究了耦合作物建模和机器学习(ML)是否改善了美国玉米带的玉米产量预测。主要目的是探索混合方法(作物建模 + ML)是否会导致更好的预测,研究混合模型的哪种组合提供了最准确的预测,并确定作物建模的特征最有效,这些特征与ML合成ML以进行玉米产量预测。已经设计了五个ML模型(线性回归,Lasso,LightGBM,Random Forest和XGBoost)和六个集合模型,以解决研究问题。结果表明,将仿真的作物模型变量(APSIM)添加到ML模型中可以将产量预测的根平方误差(RMSE)从7降低至20%。此外,我们研究了ML预测模型中APSIM特征的部分包含,我们发现与土壤水分相关的APSIM变量对ML预测最有影响力,随后是与作物相关的和物候学相关的变量。最后,根据特征重要性度量,已经观察到模拟的APSIM平均干旱应力和生长季节的平均水位深度是ML的最重要的APSIM输入。该结果表明,仅天气信息就不够,ML模型需要更多的水文输入来改善收率预测。

This study investigates whether coupling crop modeling and machine learning (ML) improves corn yield predictions in the US Corn Belt. The main objectives are to explore whether a hybrid approach (crop modeling + ML) would result in better predictions, investigate which combinations of hybrid models provide the most accurate predictions, and determine the features from the crop modeling that are most effective to be integrated with ML for corn yield prediction. Five ML models (linear regression, LASSO, LightGBM, random forest, and XGBoost) and six ensemble models have been designed to address the research question. The results suggest that adding simulation crop model variables (APSIM) as input features to ML models can decrease yield prediction root mean squared error (RMSE) from 7 to 20%. Furthermore, we investigated partial inclusion of APSIM features in the ML prediction models and we found soil moisture related APSIM variables are most influential on the ML predictions followed by crop-related and phenology-related variables. Finally, based on feature importance measure, it has been observed that simulated APSIM average drought stress and average water table depth during the growing season are the most important APSIM inputs to ML. This result indicates that weather information alone is not sufficient and ML models need more hydrological inputs to make improved yield predictions.

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