论文标题

通过结合状态空间和机械多物种模型来量化多物种捕捞死亡率,捕获和生物量的不确定性和动态变化

Quantifying uncertainty and dynamical changes in multi-species fishing mortality rates, catches and biomass by combining state-space and mechanistic multi-species models

论文作者

Spence, Michael A., Thorpe, Robert B., Blackwell, Paul G., Scott, Finlay, Southwell, Richard, Blanchard, Julia L.

论文摘要

在海洋管理中,通常使用单物种型号以逐库来管理鱼类股票。这些模型中的许多模型基于统计技术,并且擅长评估当前状态并做出短期预测。但是,由于它们没有对股票之间的相互作用进行建模,因此它们缺乏更长的时间尺度的预测能力。此外,还有一些机械多物种模型,这些模型代表关键的生物学过程,并考虑库存和资源竞争等股票之间的相互作用。由于这些模型的复杂性,它们很难适合数据,因此许多机械多物种模型取决于它们存在的单物种模型,或者在不存在的情况下进行临时假设,例如年度捕鱼死亡率等参数。在本文中,我们证明,通过采用状态空间方法,可以动态处理许多不确定的参数,从而使我们能够与可量化的不确定性,机械性多种物种模型直接适合数据。我们通过拟合有或没有单物种库存评估的物种的基于尺寸的多物种模型(包括大小的多物种模型)来证明这一点。因此,单物种模型中的错误不再通过多物种模型传播,并且基础假设更加透明。构建内部一致(具有可量化不确定性)的构建机械多物种模型将提高其信誉和实用性。这可能会通过被用来证实单种模型而导致他们的吸收。直接在建议过程中预测未来;或用来提供一种管理数据限制股票的新方法。

In marine management, fish stocks are often managed on a stock-by-stock basis using single-species models. Many of these models are based upon statistical techniques and are good at assessing the current state and making short-term predictions; however, as they do not model interactions between stocks, they lack predictive power on longer timescales. Additionally, there are mechanistic multi-species models that represent key biological processes and consider interactions between stocks such as predation and competition for resources. Due to the complexity of these models, they are difficult to fit to data, and so many mechanistic multi-species models depend upon single-species models where they exist, or ad hoc assumptions when they don't, for parameters such as annual fishing mortality. In this paper we demonstrate that by taking a state-space approach, many of the uncertain parameters can be treated dynamically, allowing us to fit, with quantifiable uncertainty, mechanistic multi-species models directly to data. We demonstrate this by fitting uncertain parameters, including annual fishing mortality, of a size-based multi-species model of the Celtic Sea, for species with and without single-species stock-assessments. Consequently, errors in the single-species models no longer propagate through the multi-species model and underlying assumptions are more transparent. Building mechanistic multi-species models that are internally consistent, with quantifiable uncertainty, will improve their credibility and utility for management. This may lead to their uptake by being either used to corroborate single-species models; directly in the advice process to make predictions into the future; or used to provide a new way of managing data-limited stocks.

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