论文标题
谁在大流行期间操纵数据？ Newcomb-Benford Law的证据
Who Manipulates Data During Pandemics? Evidence from Newcomb-Benford Law
论文作者
论文摘要
我们使用Newcomb-Benford法律来测试各国是否在COVID-19大流行期间都操纵了报告的数据。我们发现，民主国家，国内生产总值较高（GDP）的国家，更高的医疗支出以及更好的普遍医疗保健覆盖范围不太可能偏离Newcomb-Benford法律。这种关系与报告的死亡人数和总案件的累积数量相关，但对于死亡人数更为明显。这些发现对于二元测试，具有区域数据的国家的子样本以及与先前的猪流感（H1N1）2009-2010大流行有关。本文进一步强调了独立监视数据验证项目的重要性。
We use the Newcomb-Benford law to test if countries have manipulated reported data during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that democratic countries, countries with the higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, higher healthcare expenditures, and better universal healthcare coverage are less likely to deviate from the Newcomb-Benford law. The relationship holds for the cumulative number of reported deaths and total cases but is more pronounced for the death toll. The findings are robust for second-digit tests, for a sub-sample of countries with regional data, and in relation to the previous swine flu (H1N1) 2009-2010 pandemic. The paper further highlights the importance of independent surveillance data verification projects.
