论文标题

使用遗传编程应用动态训练 - 扣除选择方法,以预测隐含的波动

Applying Dynamic Training-Subset Selection Methods Using Genetic Programming for Forecasting Implied Volatility

论文作者

Hamida, Sana Ben, Abdelmalek, Wafa, Abid, Fathi

论文摘要

波动率是期权定价,交易和对冲策略的关键变量。本文的目的是通过通过动态训练 - 积分选择方法扩展基因编程(GP)来提高预测隐含波动的准确性。这些方法操纵训练数据,以改善样品模式拟合。当使用单个训练数据样本使用静态子集选择方法时,GP可能会生成预测模型,这些模型不适合某些样本适应性案例。为了提高生成的GP模式的预测准确性,将动态子集选择方法引入GP算法,从而可以在进化过程中定期更改训练样本。基于随机,顺序或自适应子集选择提出了四种动态训练 - 亚盘选择方法。最新方法使用适应性案例错误测量样品难度的自适应子集重量。使用来自SP500索引选项的实际数据,将这些技术与静态子集选择方法进行了比较。基于MSE的总数和非拟合观测的百分比,结果表明,动态方法改善了生成的GP模型的预测性能,特别是从适用于整个训练样本的自适应随机训练子集选择方法获得的。

Volatility is a key variable in option pricing, trading and hedging strategies. The purpose of this paper is to improve the accuracy of forecasting implied volatility using an extension of genetic programming (GP) by means of dynamic training-subset selection methods. These methods manipulate the training data in order to improve the out of sample patterns fitting. When applied with the static subset selection method using a single training data sample, GP could generate forecasting models which are not adapted to some out of sample fitness cases. In order to improve the predictive accuracy of generated GP patterns, dynamic subset selection methods are introduced to the GP algorithm allowing a regular change of the training sample during evolution. Four dynamic training-subset selection methods are proposed based on random, sequential or adaptive subset selection. The latest approach uses an adaptive subset weight measuring the sample difficulty according to the fitness cases errors. Using real data from SP500 index options, these techniques are compared to the static subset selection method. Based on MSE total and percentage of non fitted observations, results show that the dynamic approach improves the forecasting performance of the generated GP models, specially those obtained from the adaptive random training subset selection method applied to the whole set of training samples.

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