论文标题
贝叶斯决策支持系统，用于抵消恐怖组织的活动
A Bayesian decision support system for counteracting activities of terrorist groups
论文作者
论文摘要
恐怖组织的活动对公众的安全和福祉构成了严重威胁。反恐当局的目的是在恐怖组织采取行动之前确定和挫败他们的计划。尽管恐怖组织的活动可能被隐藏和掩饰，但这些团体的成员需要进行交流和协调以组织其活动。当局可以利用这种可观察到的行为和通信数据来估计恐怖组织构成的威胁。但是，为了可信，任何此类统计模型都需要折叠小组每个成员构成的威胁级别。与其他良性形式的社交网络不同，将恐怖组织的成员视为可交换的成员，这使该团体造成伤害的合并能力不完整。在这里，我们开发了一个贝叶斯综合决策支持系统，该系统可以将与恐怖组织的每个成员以及该团体的合并活动相关的信息汇总在一起。
Activities of terrorist groups present a serious threat to the security and well-being of the general public. Counterterrorism authorities aim to identify and frustrate the plans of terrorist groups before they are put into action. Whilst the activities of terrorist groups are likely to be hidden and disguised, the members of such groups need to communicate and coordinate to organise their activities. Such observable behaviour and communications data can be utilised by the authorities to estimate the threat posed by a terrorist group. However, to be credible, any such statistical model needs to fold in the level of threat posed by each member of the group. Unlike in other benign forms of social networks, considering the members of terrorist groups as exchangeable gives an incomplete picture of the combined capacity of the group to do harm. Here we develop a Bayesian integrating decision support system that can bring together information relating to each of the members of a terrorist group as well as the combined activities of the group.
