论文标题
每天的太阳能共振强迫类似流感的流行病的季节性
Forcing Seasonality of influenza-like epidemics with daily Solar resonance
论文作者
论文摘要
急性病毒呼吸系统疾病的季节性是一种众所周知但尚未完全了解现象。已经提出了几种模型来解释在地球不同纬度处观察到的年度反复暴发的规律性和相差。这样的模型考虑了已知的内部原因，主要是逃避宿主免疫反应的新病毒变体的周期性出现。然而，仅此一项，通常无法解释复发的规律性和观察到的相位差异。在这里，我们表明，病毒呼吸道疾病的季节性及其在地球上具有纬度的分布，可以通过每日，微小尺度的，共振的强迫机制来充分解释UV-B和太阳光子的病毒性特性。这种引起的周期性几乎可以持续（几乎不受干扰）从数十到数百个周期，甚至在存在内部动力学（宿主的免疫力丧失）的情况下，季节性会比季节性慢得多，从而产生季节性振荡。
Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase-differences observed at different latitudes on Earth. Such models take into account known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone, is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase-differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and A Solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations.
