论文标题

使用Moyal分布的SARS-COV-II流行曲线的形态和数值特征

Morphology and numerical characteristics of epidemic curves for SARS-Cov-II using Moyal distribution

论文作者

Bernal-Alvarado, Jose de Jesus, Delepine, David

论文摘要

在本文中,表明Moyal分布是研究SARS-COV-II(COVID-19)流行病学相关曲线及其传播的出色工具。 Moyal参数提供了所有信息,以描述不同受影响国家及其全球影响的疾病爆发的形式和影响。我们检查了Moyal分布可以准确地拟合每个国家 /地区的{\ IT {新确认的感染者}}}}(NCC)的每日报告,在传染病达到其最后阶段,描述开始,最激烈的阶段和最激烈的传染的下降的地方。为了实现这项工作的目的,重要的是要使用一组完整且编译完好的数据集,以适合曲线。来自法国,西班牙,意大利比利时,瑞典,英国,丹麦等欧洲国家的数据已被使用。同样,已经讨论了Moyal分配拟合的参数与每个国家采取的一般公共卫生措施之间的相关性。显示了这些策略与Moyal分布的特征之间的关系,就其参数和临界点而言。从中可以看出,流行病学曲线的时间演变的知识,它们的临界点,叠加特性和上升和结束的速度,可以帮助找到一种方法来估计每个国家 /地区施加的社会距离措施的效率,并预测大流行的不同阶段。

In this paper, it is shown that the Moyal distribution is an excelent tool to study the SARS-Cov-II (Covid-19) epidemiological associated curves and its propagation. The Moyal parameters give all the information to describe the form and the impact of the illness outbreak in the different affected countries and its global impact. We checked that the Moyal distribution can accurately fit the daily report of {\it{new confirmed cases of infected people}} (NCC) per country, in that places where the contagion is reaching their final phase, describing the beginning, the most intense phase and the descend of the contagion, simultaneously . In order to achieve the purpose of this work, it is important to work with a complete and well compilated set of the data to be used to fit the curves. Data from European countries like France, Spain, Italy Belgium, Sweden, United Kingdom, Denmark and others like USA and China, have been used. Also, the correlation between the parameters of the Moyal distribution fitting and the general public health measures imposed in each country, have been discussed. A relation between those policies and the features of the Moyal distribution, in terms of their parameters and critical points, is shown; from that, it can be seen that the knowledge of the time evolution of the epidemiological curve, their critical points, superposition properties and rates of the rising and the ending, could help to find a way to estimate the efficiency of social distancing measures, imposed in each country, and anticipate the different phases of the pandemic.

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