论文标题
环境数据的贝叶斯非反应极值模型
Bayesian non-asymptotic extreme value models for environmental data
论文作者
论文摘要
通过对极端降雨数据的分析的激励,我们引入了一个通用的贝叶斯分层模型,用于估计间歇性随机序列的极端值的概率分布,这是地球物理和环境科学环境中的常见问题。这里提出的方法放松了传统极值(EV)理论的典型渐近假设,并解释了事件幅度和事件分布的潜在可变性,这些变化是通过潜在的时间过程描述的。拟议模型的结构着眼于每日降雨极端,使自己纳入了对降雨过程的先前地球物理理解。通过广泛的模拟研究,我们表明,这种方法可以显着减少贝叶斯对传统渐近EV方法的不确定性,尤其是在相对较小的样本的情况下。该方法的好处进一步说明了美国大陆上479个长期降雨历史记录的大量数据集的应用。通过比较样本中和样本外预测精度的测量,我们发现这里开发的模型结构与使用所有可用观测值的推理相结合,显着提高了与特定样本过度拟合的鲁棒性。
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and environmental science settings. The approach presented here relaxes the asymptotic assumption typical of the traditional extreme value (EV) theory, and accounts for the possible underlying variability in the distribution of event magnitudes and occurrences, which are described through a latent temporal process. Focusing on daily rainfall extremes, the structure of the proposed model lends itself to incorporating prior geo-physical understanding of the rainfall process. By means of an extensive simulation study, we show that this methodology can significantly reduce estimation uncertainty with respect to Bayesian formulations of traditional asymptotic EV methods, particularly in the case of relatively small samples. The benefits of the approach are further illustrated with an application to a large data set of 479 long daily rainfall historical records from across the continental United States. By comparing measures of in-sample and out-of-sample predictive accuracy, we find that the model structure developed here, combined with the use of all available observations for inference, significantly improves robustness with respect to overfitting to the specific sample.