论文标题
利用几个世纪爆发准备的见解来改善现代计划工作
Leveraging Insight from Centuries of Outbreak Preparedness to Improve Modern Planning Efforts
论文作者
论文摘要
尽管大流行的准备一直是几个世纪以来的公共卫生计划的重点，在此期间，我们对传染病动态的理解已经越来越多，但我们管理暴发的方法仍然相对不变。我们建议利用这一历史来确定实际进步的机会。我们将当前的计划与历史暴发控制措施进行了对比，并隔离了现代时代的复杂性如何在如何最好地预测和减轻爆发方面产生其他挑战。我们分析了多样的现代现代准备计划，该计划与迪福（Defoe）的《瘟疫年刊》（Journal of the Plague Yourgan）中所述的基于历史的虚构爆发控制策略（1720年出版）。我们确定了准备计划中的主题，即使在计划工作中继续对其进行积极评估，这些主题仍与历史环境保持不变。更重要的是，我们在准备计划中隔离了批判的现代挑战，这些挑战主要是未解决的。这些现代，未解决的问题为有意义的改进提供了最佳途径。将我们的计划努力转移到确定的新问题上可能会大大加强我们本地到应对感染威胁的能力。
Though pandemic preparedness has been a focus of public health planning for centuries, during which our understanding of infectious disease dynamics has grown, our methodologies for managing outbreaks have remained relatively unchanged. We propose leveraging this history to identify opportunities for actual progress. We contrast current plans with historical outbreak control measures and isolate how the complexities of a modern era yield additional challenges in how best to anticipate and mitigate outbreaks. We analyze a diversity of publicly available modern preparedness plans against the context of a historically-based fictional outbreak control strategy described in Defoe's A Journal of the Plague Year (published 1720). We identify themes in preparedness planning that remain unchanged from historical settings even though they continue to be actively evaluated in planning efforts. More importantly, we isolate critical modern challenges in preparedness planning that remain predominantly unsolved. These modern, unsolved issues offer best avenues for meaningful improvement. Shifting our planning efforts to focus on identified novel issues may greatly strengthen our local- to global- capacity to deal with infectious threats.
