论文标题
控制Covid-19的隐藏增长
Controlling the Hidden Growth of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
联盟19日大流行困扰着世界数月。美国已采取措施对抗它。每天都有新确认的病例。在早期，这些数字显示出越来越多的趋势。最近，这些数字通常已经变平了。该报告试图通过使用确认的病例来估计人群中当前活着的感染的隐藏数量。一个主要结果表明，现有的感染估计约为每日确认的新病例的10-50倍，严格的社会距离政策倾斜到该范围的上端。它阐明了感染率与测试率之间的关系，以控制流行病，这说测试率应与感染率保持在相同的速度，以防止爆发。在美国和世界重新开业后，这种关系是有意义的。该报告还揭示了所有措施与流行病扩散的联系。提出了一种分层的采样方法，以增加流行病控制的当前工具套件。同样，该报告是一些直接观察和思想的摘要，而不是通过对现场数据支持的全面研究。结果显而易见，适合对有兴趣的决策者和公众进行通识教育。
The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly confirmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the numbers have been generally flattened out. This report tries to estimate the hidden number of currently alive infections in the population by using the confirmed cases. A major result indicates an existing infections estimate at about 10-50 times the daily confirmed new cases, with the stringent social distancing policy tipping to the upper end of this range. It clarifies the relationship between the infection rate and the test rate to put the epidemic under control, which says that the test rate shall keep up at the same pace as infection rate to prevent an outbreak. This relationship is meaningful in the wake of business re-opening in the U.S. and the world. The report also reveals the connections of all the measures taken to the epidemic spread. A stratified sampling method is proposed to add to the current tool kits of epidemic control. Again, this report is a summary of some straight observations and thoughts, not through a thorough study backed with field data. The results appear obvious and suitable for general education to interested policymakers and the public.
