论文标题
COVID-19爆发的强大而最佳的预测控制
Robust and optimal predictive control of the COVID-19 outbreak
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究适应性策略,以基于德国的例子来稳健,最佳地通过社会疏远措施来最佳和最佳地控制Covid-19。我们的目标是最大程度地减少两年中的死亡人数,而不会导致过多的社会成本。我们考虑了德国Covid-19爆发的量身定制模型,该爆发具有不同的参数集,以设计和验证我们的方法。我们的分析表明,与在确切模型知识的假设下,开放环的最佳控制策略可以显着减少死亡人数。在具有不确定数据和模型不匹配的更现实的情况下,一种反馈策略,使用模型预测控制(MPC)更新策略,即使将其应用于具有差异参数的验证模型,也会导致可靠的性能。最重要的是,我们提出了一种基于MPC的反馈政策,使用间隔算术算术谨慎地适应社会疏远的措施,从而导致最小数量的死亡人数,即使测量值不准确并且无法通过社交疏远来精确地指定感染率。我们的理论发现通过表明1)需要自适应反馈策略来可靠地包含COVID-19爆发,2)与更简单的社交距离措施相比,与更简单的社交距离相比,与更简单的社交措施相比,同一水平和更强大的社会持续的态度更加强大的态度和更强大的社会态度更加有效地,与更简单的社交措施相比,与更简单的社交措施相比,良好的政策可以显着减少死亡人数以后的时间。
We investigate adaptive strategies to robustly and optimally control the COVID-19 pandemic via social distancing measures based on the example of Germany. Our goal is to minimize the number of fatalities over the course of two years without inducing excessive social costs. We consider a tailored model of the German COVID-19 outbreak with different parameter sets to design and validate our approach. Our analysis reveals that an open-loop optimal control policy can significantly decrease the number of fatalities when compared to simpler policies under the assumption of exact model knowledge. In a more realistic scenario with uncertain data and model mismatch, a feedback strategy that updates the policy weekly using model predictive control (MPC) leads to a reliable performance, even when applied to a validation model with deviant parameters. On top of that, we propose a robust MPC-based feedback policy using interval arithmetic that adapts the social distancing measures cautiously and safely, thus leading to a minimum number of fatalities even if measurements are inaccurate and the infection rates cannot be precisely specified by social distancing. Our theoretical findings support various recent studies by showing that 1) adaptive feedback strategies are required to reliably contain the COVID-19 outbreak, 2) well-designed policies can significantly reduce the number of fatalities compared to simpler ones while keeping the amount of social distancing measures on the same level, and 3) imposing stronger social distancing measures early on is more effective and cheaper in the long run than opening up too soon and restoring stricter measures at a later time.