论文标题
共同预测和时间估计,即使用胸部CT扫描产生严重症状的共同预测和时间估计
Joint Prediction and Time Estimation of COVID-19 Developing Severe Symptoms using Chest CT Scan
论文作者
论文摘要
随着冠状病毒疾病(Covid-19)的全球迅速传播,对Covid-19进行早期诊断并预测患者可能转化为严重阶段的时间非常重要,以设计有效的治疗计划并减少临床医生的工作量。在这项研究中,我们提出了一种联合分类和回归方法,以确定患者是否会在后来的时间出现严重症状,如果是,请预测患者将花费的转化时间转化为严重阶段。为此,提出的方法考虑了1)每个样本的重量减少异常值的影响并探索不平衡分类的问题,以及2)通过稀疏正规化项的每个功能的权重以删除高维数据的冗余特征并在分类任务和回归任务中学习共享信息的冗余特征。据我们所知,这项研究是预测疾病进展和转化时间的第一项工作,这可以帮助临床医生及时处理潜在的严重病例,甚至可以挽救患者的生命。对来自422个胸部计算机断层扫描(CT)扫描的两家医院的真实数据集进行了实验分析,其中52例平均转化为严重5.64天,入院时34例严重。结果表明,与所有比较方法相比,我们的方法可实现最佳分类(例如,准确度的85.91%)和回归(例如,相关系数的0.462)性能。此外,我们提出的方法可产生预测严重病例的准确性的76.97%,相关系数为0.524,转换时间为0.55天。
With the rapidly worldwide spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), it is of great importance to conduct early diagnosis of COVID-19 and predict the time that patients might convert to the severe stage, for designing effective treatment plan and reducing the clinicians' workloads. In this study, we propose a joint classification and regression method to determine whether the patient would develop severe symptoms in the later time, and if yes, predict the possible conversion time that the patient would spend to convert to the severe stage. To do this, the proposed method takes into account 1) the weight for each sample to reduce the outliers' influence and explore the problem of imbalance classification, and 2) the weight for each feature via a sparsity regularization term to remove the redundant features of high-dimensional data and learn the shared information across the classification task and the regression task. To our knowledge, this study is the first work to predict the disease progression and the conversion time, which could help clinicians to deal with the potential severe cases in time or even save the patients' lives. Experimental analysis was conducted on a real data set from two hospitals with 422 chest computed tomography (CT) scans, where 52 cases were converted to severe on average 5.64 days and 34 cases were severe at admission. Results show that our method achieves the best classification (e.g., 85.91% of accuracy) and regression (e.g., 0.462 of the correlation coefficient) performance, compared to all comparison methods. Moreover, our proposed method yields 76.97% of accuracy for predicting the severe cases, 0.524 of the correlation coefficient, and 0.55 days difference for the converted time.