论文标题
突尼斯的新型电晕病毒疾病感染：数学模型和隔离策略的影响
Novel Corona virus Disease infection in Tunisia: Mathematical model and the impact of the quarantine strategy
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们提出了一个新的模型，以用于Covid-19感染的动力学。我们的方法包括七种表型：易感人类，暴露的人类，传染性人，被恢复的人类，隔离人群，被恢复的暴露和死者的人口。我们首先通过数学方法证明了对被考虑模型的解决方案的阳性，界限和存在。我们还研究了无疾病平衡的存在和相关的稳定性。因此，计算了实际的繁殖数。我们分析了基本复制r_0对模型置信度的依赖性。我们的工作尤其表明，如果繁殖数量少于1，疾病将减少。此外，讨论了隔离策略减少这种疾病传播的影响。理论结果通过对流行病微分方程系统的一些数值模拟来验证。
In this paper, we propose a new model for the dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our approach consists of seven phenotypes: the susceptible humans, exposed humans, infectious humans, the recovered humans, the quarantine population, the recovered-exposed and deceased population. We proved first through mathematical approach the positivity, boundness and existence of a solution to considered model. We also studied the existence of the disease free equilibrium and corresp onding stability. Hence, the actual reproduction number was calculated . We analyzed the dependence of basic reproductions R_0 on the confidence of our model. Our work shows, in particular, that the disease will decrease out if the number of reproduction was less than one. Moreover, the impact of the quarantine strategies to reduce the spread of this disease is discussed. The theoretical results are validated by some numerical simulations of the system of the epidemic's differential equations.
