论文标题
时间依赖的SEIR模型，用于分析葡萄牙SARS-COV-2流行病爆发的演变
A time-dependent SEIR model to analyse the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in Portugal
论文作者
论文摘要
背景：SARS-COV-2流行的分析对于了解冠状病毒扩散的动力学至关重要。这可以帮助卫生和政府当局采取适当的措施，并实施旨在与之抗争和阻止它的合适政治。方法：以先前在韩国MERS爆发期间使用的模型中启发的时间相关的动态SEIR模型用于分析葡萄牙的活动和住院病例的时间轨迹。结果：病毒扩散在该国的时间演变已经充分建模。自缓解措施发作以来，该模型每五天都有每五天的变化参数。尽管回收案件的官方价值已过时，但估计约有22,000例活跃病例的峰值。住院病病例可能达到约1,250例的峰值，其中ICU单位为200/300。结论：采用适当的措施，可以控制葡萄牙的活动案例数量约为22,000人，其中约1,250例住院和200/300 ICU单位。该国国家卫生服务局似乎可以管理，估计有1,140个呼吸机。
Background: The analysis of the Sars-CoV-2 epidemic is of paramount importance to understand the dynamics of the coronavirus spread. This can help health and government authorities take the appropriate measures and implement suitable politics aimed at fighting and preventing it. Methods: A time-dependent dynamic SEIR model inspired in a model previously used during the MERS outbreak in South Korea was used to analyse the time trajectories of active and hospitalized cases in Portugal. Results: The time evolution of the virus spread in the country was adequately modelled. The model has changeable parameters every five days since the onset of mitigation measures. A peak of about 22,000 active cases is estimated, although the official value for recovered cases is out of date. Hospitalized cases could reach a peak of about 1,250 cases, of which 200/300 in ICU units. Conclusion: With appropriate measures, the number of active cases in Portugal can be controlled at about 22,000 people, of which about 1,250 hospitalized and 200/300 in ICU units. This seems manageable by the country national health service with an estimated 1,140 ventilators.
