论文标题
透明的COVID-19预测
Transparent Covid-19 prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种非常简单且透明的方法，可以解释确认的COVID-19病例的时间序列。粗略地说，每天对每周新感染的分析是对流行病转折点定义和早期检测的工具。在意大利，Covid-19的活动的增长是在一周前克服的，奥地利和瑞士也随之而来。本说明强调了中央数据库中感染和感染列表之间两周的关键延迟。我们对COVID-19活动和繁殖率的时间过程的估计可以减少几天的信息差距。我们表明，西班牙和德国已经超出了转折点。通常，在主要锁定措施后不久，估计的繁殖率变得不足，而COVID-19活动随后开始降低。本说明为所有采取严格遏制措施的地区提供了非常乐观的前景。
We present a very simple and transparent method to interpret time series of confirmed Covid-19 cases. Roughly speaking, the analysis of weekly new infections for each day is a tool for the definition and early detection of the turning point of the epidemic. In Italy, the growth of Covid-19 activity was overcome one week ago, Austria and Switzerland followed suit. This note emphasizes the crucial delay of two weeks between infection and listing of infection in a central database. Our estimates of the time course of Covid-19 activity and reproduction rates can reduce the information gap by several days. We show that Spain and Germany are already beyond the turning point. In general the estimated reproduction rates become undercritical a short time after the main lockdown measures, and the Covid-19 activity starts to decrease afterwards. This note gives a very optimistic outlook for all regions which have taken strict containment measures.
