论文标题
两阶段流行生学的免疫流行模型
Immuno-epidemiological model of two-stage epidemic growth
论文作者
论文摘要
关于季节性流感的流行病学数据表明，受感染个体数量的增长率可以增加从一个指数增长率到另一个具有较大指数的增长率。常规流行病学模型不描述这种行为。在这项工作中，提出了一种免疫 - 发育学模型，以描述这种两阶段的增长。它考虑到感染个体数量的增长增加了初始病毒载量，并提供了从流行病的第一阶段的通道，在这种流行病的第一阶段中，只有免疫反应较弱的人被感染到第二阶段，即还感染了强烈的免疫反应的人。这种情况可能被视为有效数量的易感数量增加，从而增加了感染的有效增长速度。
Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza show that the growth rate of the number of infected individuals can increase passing from one exponential growth rate to another one with a larger exponent. Such behavior is not described by conventional epidemiological models. In this work an immuno-epidemiological model is proposed in order to describe this two-stage growth. It takes into account that the growth in the number of infected individuals increases the initial viral load and provides a passage from the first stage of epidemic where only people with weak immune response are infected to the second stage where people with strong immune response are also infected. This scenario may be viewed as an increase of the effective number of susceptible increasing the effective growth rate of infected.
