论文标题
流行病扩散的可解决延迟模型：意大利的COVID-19
Solvable delay model for epidemic spreading: the case of Covid-19 in Italy
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了一个简单的现实模型，用于描述传染病在个人人群上的扩散。该动力学受单个功能延迟差分方程的控制，在大种群的情况下，即使在存在时间依赖性感染率的情况下，也可以准确地解决。该延迟模型的准确度比流行病学通常使用的所谓SIR模型的准确性更高，而这种延迟模型的准确性是通过普通微分方程进行的。我们将这种模型用于描述意大利新传染病-19的爆发，考虑到政府采取的遏制措施，以减轻病毒的传播和人群的社会成本。
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population, can be solved exactly, even in the presence of a time-dependent infection rate. This delay model has a higher degree of accuracy than that of the so-called SIR model, commonly used in epidemiology, which, instead, is formulated in terms of ordinary differential equations. We apply this model to describe the outbreak of the new infectious disease, Covid-19, in Italy, taking into account the containment measures implemented by the government in order to mitigate the spreading of the virus and the social costs for the population.
