论文标题
关于德雷克公式的费米悖论的概率分析：l因子的作用
A probabilistic analysis of the Fermi paradox in terms of the Drake formula: the role of the L factor
论文作者
论文摘要
在通过Drake公式评估银河系中的技术文明的数量时，重点主要放在描述文明的出现的天体物理和生物技术因素上，而其生命周期的出现较少，这与其灭亡密切相关。在这里认为，这个因素实际上是Drake公式的实际含义最重要的，因为它决定了任何技术文明的“影响力”的最大程度。通过蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）模拟了n文明在其太空中的终生寿命中扩展的n文明的模拟。分析的结果用于确定费米悖论保持的参数空间中的区域。有人认为，在图的大区域中，相应的参数表明了“弱”费米悖论。未来的研究可能会揭示“强”悖论在参数空间的某些部分中是否存在。最后，有人认为，n的值与通常假定的相反，但可能具有统计解释，而不是从下面绑定n = 1。
In evaluating the number of technological civilizations N in the Galaxy through the Drake formula, emphasis is mostly put on the astrophysical and biotechnological factors describing the emergence of a civilization and much less on its the lifetime, which is intimately related to its demise. It is argued here that this factor is in fact the most important regarding the practical implications of the Drake formula, because it determines the maximal extent of the "sphere of influence" of any technological civilization. The Fermi paradox is studied in the terms of a simplified version of the Drake formula, through Monte Carlo simulations of N civilizations expanding in the Galaxy during their space faring lifetime L. In the framework of that scheme, the probability of "direct contact" is determined as the fraction of the Galactic volume occupied collectively by the "spheres of influence" of N civilizations. The results of the analysis are used to determine regions in the parameter space where the Fermi paradox holds. It is argued that in a large region of the diagram the corresponding parameters suggest rather a "weak" Fermi paradox. Future research may reveal whether a "strong" paradox holds in some part of the parameter space. Finally, it is argued that the value of N is not bound by N=1 from below, contrary to what is usually assumed, but it may have a statistical interpretation.
