论文标题
冲突外部化和对和平的追求：哥伦比亚的理论和案例证据
Conflict externalization and the quest for peace: theory and case evidence from Colombia
论文作者
论文摘要
我研究了暴力家庭冲突的可能性与这种冲突“外部”的风险之间的关系（即通过造成国际争端传播到另一个国家）。我认为政府与叛军团体之间的家庭冲突有可能外部化的情况。我表明，外部化的风险增加了和平结局的可能性，但是只有当政府相对于叛军而言足够强大，外部化的风险就足够高，并且可以干预家庭冲突的外国行为者对材料成本和收益充分兴趣。我展示了这种模式如何帮助了解哥伦比亚政府与该国最强大的叛军团体，哥伦比亚革命武装部队（FARC）之间最近成功的和平进程。
I study the relationship between the likelihood of a violent domestic conflict and the risk that such a conflict "externalizes" (i.e. spreads to another country by creating an international dispute). I consider a situation in which a domestic conflict between a government and a rebel group has the potential to externalize. I show that the risk of externalization increases the likelihood of a peaceful outcome, but only if the government is sufficiently powerful relative to the rebels, the risk of externalization is sufficiently high, and the foreign actor who can intervene in the domestic conflict is sufficiently uninterested in material costs and benefits. I show how this model helps to understand the recent and successful peace process between the Colombian government and the country's most powerful rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).
