论文标题
气候变化对安大略省玉米产量的影响及其对2068年玉米农场收入的影响
Influence Of Climate Change On The Corn Yield In Ontario And Its Impact On Corn Farms Income At The 2068 Horizon
论文作者
论文摘要
我们的研究旨在量化气候变化对安大略省玉米养殖的影响，在2068年地平线的几个变暖场景下。它是围绕玉米农场收入的离散时间动态模型表达的，该模型的年度时间步长，与一个从种植到收获的一个农业周期相对应。在每个时期，我们计算给定玉米收益率的收入，这高度取决于天气变量。我们还提供了安大略省10个城市玉米产量年度分配的可重复预测。考虑到收获时间的玉米期货价格，我们使用49年的历史数据符合我们的模型。然后，我们进行样本外蒙特卡洛模拟，以在给定的气候变化情况下获得农场收入预测。
Our study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on corn farming in Ontario under several warming scenarios at the 2068 horizon. It is articulated around a discrete-time dynamic model of corn farm income with an annual time-step, corresponding to one agricultural cycle from planting to harvest. At each period, we compute the income given the corn yield, which is highly dependent on weather variables. We also provide a reproducible forecast of the yearly distribution of corn yield for 10 cities in Ontario. The price of corn futures at harvest time is taken into account and we fit our model by using 49 years of historical data. We then conduct out-of-sample Monte-Carlo simulations to obtain the farm income forecasts under a given climate change scenario.
