论文标题
考虑热过渡途径的系统充足性的计算
Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways
论文作者
论文摘要
发达经济体中热量的脱碳代表了一个重大挑战，电加热技术的渗透可能导致峰值电力需求的前所未有的增加。这项工作考虑了一种通过利用历史气体需求数据来评估热量快速电气化的影响的方法。这项工作旨在为流行的生成热需求模型提供数据驱动的补充，其特定目的是告知监管机构和行动者在产能市场中如何影响政策变化如何影响中期系统适当度量指标（最长五年）。 GB案例研究的结果表明，与使用缩放的电力需求曲线相比，使用缩放气体需求曲线的热量需求增加了1英寸20系统峰值增长的速率。低终端使用系统效率，就性能的总数和需求侧响应能力而言，在五年的热量需求增长后，有可能导致电需求温度敏感性增加一倍。
The decarbonisation of heat in developed economies represents a significant challenge, with increased penetration of electrical heating technologies potentially leading to unprecedented increases in peak electricity demand. This work considers a method to evaluate the impact of rapid electrification of heat by utilising historic gas demand data. The work is intended to provide a data-driven complement to popular generative heat demand models, with a particular aim of informing regulators and actors in capacity markets as to how policy changes could impact on medium-term system adequacy metrics (up to five years ahead). Results from a GB case study show that the representation of heat demand using scaled gas demand profiles increases the rate at which 1-in-20 system peaks grow by 60\%, when compared to the use of scaled electricity demand profiles. Low end-use system efficiency, in terms of aggregate coefficient of performance and demand side response capabilities, are shown to potentially lead to a doubling of electrical demand-temperature sensitivity following five years of heat demand growth.
