论文标题
极端事件的解剖结构:我们可以推断出重尾随机步行的历史?
Anatomy of an extreme event: What can we infer about the history of a heavy-tailed random walk?
论文作者
论文摘要
极端事件本质上是罕见的,难以预测,但通常比频繁的典型事件重要得多。对此类事件的预测的一个有趣的对立面是它们的回顾 - 给定一个离群态状态的过程,导致此终点的事件是如何展开的?特别是,是否只有一个大规模的事件,还是历史记录是多个,较小但仍然重要的事件的综合?为了调查这个问题,我们将重尾随机过程(特别是对称,$α$稳定的lévy过程)作为原型随机步行。自然而有用的特征量表来自对以特定最终状态(莱维桥)到达的过程的分析。对于最终位移的时间比此量表更长,即使它对应于罕见的极端事件,也很可能是跳远的场景。另一方面,对于最终的最终位移,涉及极端事件的历史往往会被抑制。为了进一步说明此分析的实用性,我们展示了它如何提供一个直观的框架,以了解与重尾过程的边界交叉有关的三个问题。这些示例说明了直觉如何无法从扩散过程中延续,甚至非常接近高斯极限。一个例子在莱维桥上产生了一个计算和概念上有用的表示,该表示说明了调节如何影响随机步行的极端事件内容。其他示例涉及条件边界交叉问题和普通的第一景观问题;我们在激光冷却原子实验中讨论了后一个示例的可观察性。
Extreme events are by nature rare and difficult to predict, yet are often much more important than frequent, typical events. An interesting counterpoint to the prediction of such events is their retrodiction -- given a process in an outlier state, how did the events leading up to this endpoint unfold? In particular, was there only a single, massive event, or was the history a composite of multiple, smaller but still significant events? To investigate this problem we take heavy-tailed stochastic processes (specifically,the symmetric, $α$-stable Lévy processes) as prototypical random walks. A natural and useful characteristic scale arises from the analysis of processes conditioned to arrive in a particular final state (Lévy bridges). For final displacements longer than this scale, the scenario of a single, long jump is most likely, even though it corresponds to a rare, extreme event. On the other hand, for small final displacements, histories involving extreme events tend to be suppressed. To further illustrate the utility of this analysis, we show how it provides an intuitive framework for understanding three problems related to boundary crossings of heavy-tailed processes. These examples illustrate how intuition fails to carry over from diffusive processes, even very close to the Gaussian limit. One example yields a computationally and conceptually useful representation of Lévy bridges that illustrates how conditioning impacts the extreme-event content of a random walk. The other examples involve the conditioned boundary-crossing problem and the ordinary first-escape problem; we discuss the observability of the latter example in experiments with laser-cooled atoms.