论文标题
可以听到目标区域的形状吗?
Can one hear the shape of a target zone?
论文作者
论文摘要
我们开发有有限的退出时间和非高斯尾巴的汇率目标区域模型。我们展示了尾巴是如何导致时变投资者风险规避的结果,这在基本分配中产生平均延伸的利差。我们明确地解决了固定和非平稳汇率路径,并显示两者如何连续依赖于出口时间和目标区带的距离。这使我们能够展示中央银行干预如何与乐队基础的距离和潜在风险的距离内源。我们讨论了目标区域的可行性是如何由设定的视野和潜在风险的程度来塑造的,并确定可以达到所需的奇偶校验的最短时间。我们证明,在一定阈值之后的风险增加可以产生内源性状态的变化,在``蜜月效应''消失,而目标区域无法可行地维护。这些结果都无法通过标准高斯或仿射模型获得。数值模拟使我们能够恢复目标区域文献中建立的所有汇率密度。我们框架的一般性对现代目标区域安排具有重要的政策影响。
We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve explicitly for stationary and non-stationary exchange rate paths, and show how both depend continuously on the distance to the exit time and the target zone bands. This enables us to show how central bank intervention is endogenous to both the distance of the fundamental to the band and the underlying risk. We discuss how the feasibility of the target zone is shaped by the set horizon and the degree of underlying risk, and we determine a minimum time at which the required parity can be reached. We prove that increases in risk after a certain threshold can yield endogenous regime shifts where the ``honeymoon effects'' vanish and the target zone cannot be feasibly maintained. None of these results can be obtained by means of the standard Gaussian or affine models. Numerical simulations allow us to recover all the exchange rate densities established in the target zone literature. The generality of our framework has important policy implications for modern target zone arrangements.